Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are due to meet in Tehran next week, with Ukrainian grain exports and a possible Turkish operation in Syria likely to top the agenda.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today that Putin would visit Iran on July 19 to attend a three-way summit between Turkish, Iranian and Russian leaders and would also hold bilateral meetings with the two leaders on the sidelines.
Ankara’s efforts to facilitate a UN-led initiative for a Black Sea Naval Corridor to export grain from Ukraine are expected to be an important item on the agenda of bilateral talks between Putin and Erdogan. The meeting will be followed by quadripartite talks in Istanbul. Turkish, Ukrainian and Russian military delegations as well as UN officials will discuss the security of Ukrainian grain export, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said today.
The UN has warned of high expectations as the international community warns of a looming global food crisis if efforts fail.
“We are working hard, indeed, but there is still a long way to go. A lot of people are talking about it; we would rather try to do it,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said today. million people around the world depend on Ukrainian grain exports.
Russia insists Ukraine must clear its ports for exports to begin. Ukraine, in turn, is calling for security guarantees, demanding that third countries and the UN prevent Russia from launching amphibious assaults on its shores once the waters are cleared.
“Russia’s influence to exacerbate or mitigate the impending food crisis is great,” Maxim Suchkov, a nonresident researcher at the Middle East Institute, told Al-Monitor. According to Suchkov, Moscow wants to prove that it is not at the origin of the cereal crisis, and Turkey seeks to “impose itself as the reference” in the talks.
“Here again, Putin’s and Erdogan’s intentions have found a common stance while pursuing somewhat different interests,” he said, adding that Turkish-Russian cooperation for a secure naval corridor is also “in interest of both parties”.
The grain crisis has already caused tension between Ankara and Kyiv last week, after Turkish authorities released a Russian vessel accused by Kyiv of being loaded with grain from Russian-occupied territories, despite “criminal evidence presented to Turkish authorities,” spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. Oleg Nikolenko lamented.
The four-party talks in Istanbul will come after Erdogan discussed the efforts with Putin and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in separate phone conversations on July 11.
Erdogan told Putin “the time has come to act on the UN plan to establish safe corridors for grain exports in the Black Sea,” according to an official Turkish reading.
The two leaders also “discussed the situation in Syria”, the statement added, as Turkish threats of a new military offensive against Kurdish groups in northern Syria persist. Erdogan is likely to pressure Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to support the operation.
Ankara recently scaled back its threatening rhetoric about a potential operation against Kurdish groups – key allies of US-led international coalition forces in the fight against Islamic State – in the absence of Russian and US green lights. Erdogan last week that his country was “in no hurry”.
Yet the Kurdish-led autonomy in northern Syria has declared a state of emergency, citing the expected incursion. On July 10, Akar reiterated Ankara’s threats, saying Turkish troops had been subjected to “serious harassment” from Tel Rifaat and Manbij, the towns in northern Syria that Erdogan had attacked. pledged to “eliminate terrorists” last month. Tel Rifaat seems a less likely option given its proximity to the predominantly Shia towns of Nubl and al-Zahra where pro-Iranian forces are located.
Akar said it was “out of the question” for Turkey to respond to calls from foreign capitals not to carry out the operation, adding that “talks with the parties and persons concerned” are ongoing.
“I expect bargaining in the upcoming talks,” Suchkov said, pointing to Russian and Iranian statements leading Turkey to the negotiating table.
Turkey failed to get the green light from its Astana partners for an all-out operation during the latest round of talks in Kazakhstan last month.
Yet, is an operation limited to Manbij possible?
According to Suchkov, the answer depends on three factors: whether such an operation would complicate Russia’s presence and political influence in Syria; whether that would mean a confrontation between Turkish troops and Syrian government forces; and the position of Tehran.
