Nowadays, there is another type of Russian influx in the Bosphorus. Thousands fleeing Russians have traveled to Istanbul, hoping to escape an economy collapsing under sanctions and a country hypnotized by the neo-Orwellian charm of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Among them are artists, academics and software workers.
“I grabbed the first Airbnb I found,” said a Russian scholar I recently met for coffee. In Istanbul, he might call the Russian assault on Ukraine a ‘war’, but at home it’s a ‘special military operation’ – and anyone who says otherwise risks a 15 years imprisonment.
Russian exiles aren’t the only ones in town. This week, a delegation of Russian negotiators met their Ukrainian counterparts at Dolmabahce Palace, an Ottoman-era administrative building also on the Bosphorus. The two sides met several times in Belarus and in video calls, with no concrete results, but Turkish officials who met the two delegations here saw signs of progress and a new tone from Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that it would “significantly reduce” its military encirclement of Ukrainian towns in Kyiv and Chernihiv, focusing instead on Donbass.
Turkish officials believe these small steps could pave the way for a possible meeting between Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, the charismatic Ukrainian president, within weeks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently said that Putin needs a “honorable exit, and his advisors believe that the gap on some issues is narrowing.
But Ukrainians are skeptical. They fear Russia is playing well because it is mired in Kyiv and other parts of the country, where Ukrainian resistance has been firm. They believe Russia’s move is aimed at slowing Ukrainian military progress in reclaiming some key towns, and that the Russians want a respite only to restock and receive a new round of recruits expected in mid-April.
The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle: the Russians still have military goals they hope to achieve and the war is far from over, but progress has also been made on some important issues. The secret ingredient of any ceasefire agreement will likely have to be a tacit commitment from the United States – with the Biden administration signaling that ending the war would bring conditional and gradual sanctions relief to Russia. And it’s still not on the table.
Dissidents and official delegations aren’t the only Russians in town. Russian politicians and oligarchs – and their boats – are slowly appearing too. A yacht reportedly linked to former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev recently docked at a marina in Istanbul – incidentally, a stone’s throw from where the Russians and Ottomans signed an end of armistice the Russo-Turkish War of 1877-1878, the Turks having to give up what is now Bulgaria.
Then there is Roman Abramovich, the sanctioned Russian oligarch who somehow worked his way into the peace talks. Turkish officials say Abramovich was helpful in making this week’s meeting happen and was treaty in a Turkish hospital for suspicion of poisoning. Meanwhile, his two superyachts moored in Turkish ports in the Mediterranean in recent days.
It is undeniable that Ankara seems eager to provide a safe haven for Russian oligarchs, their boats and their money. Erdogan noted this week, “We will keep our doors open to capitalist groups who would like to park their potential in Turkey”, leaving no mystery about Turkey’s intentions. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu noted“If it is legal and not against international law, I will consider [it].”
At the start of the war, Ankara’s balance between Russia and Ukraine seemed like a gamble, with Turkey selling armed drones to Ukraine while trying to preserve its uneasy partnership with Putin. The Turks felt vulnerable towards Moscow, worried about their fragile economy and prepared for turbulent times.
But for all its tragedy, the war itself seems to have eased Turkey’s dilemma. It provided new capital for Turkey’s squeaky economy, a new opportunity to mend Turkey’s ties with the West and a new role for Turkey’s president offering good offices to both sides in the conflict. For once, Turkey has managed to maintain a delicate geopolitical balance. Perhaps if either side pushes for victory, or if the West tires of Turkey’s semi-neutrality, Ankara will once again lose its balance.
But for now, the sweet Slavic hum coming from the various Russians strolling along the Bosphorus sounds sweet to Turkish ears.
