Ukraine wins, loses as France, Greece and Turkey plan rescue of Mariupol

0

Wow, what a day! Let’s take this as a recap.

Thanks to Russia, cats and dogs are working with the French, to do something that should have been done weeks ago.

X

The key here is that French President Emmanuel Macron has yet to tell Vladimir Putin about it. It’s not an endless bullshit negotiation. France, Greece and Turkey are working together to achieve this, and France to say Putin, don’t ask permission. Putin could threaten back, leading to a stalemate. Russia could block the entrance to the Sea of ​​Azov. The whole area is heavily mined, so rescue ships would be in great danger. Any evacuation would result in the shelling of the refugees racing towards the waiting ships. And the Russians could try to block any leaks, lest members of Azov and other Ukrainian forces mingle and get out. It is therefore not an easy operation. But so glad it worked.

Kyiv/northern front: No territory has changed hands. Artillery battles are taking place in northwest kyiv, while another Russian attempt to break through Brovary from the northeast side has been repelled by Ukraine. Makariv was declared liberated a few days ago, but Ukraine reports heavy fighting continues around the town.

Kharkiv/Sumy/Northeastern Front: Ukrainian forces have pushed the Russians out of two villages east of Kharkiv, offering some relief to the beleaguered city. In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces are again on the offensive, although no territory has changed hands.

Donbass facade: Russian troops makes gains in their efforts to completely encircle Izyum, gaining about 10 km of ground to the southeast. This city is essential both for the supply of Ukrainian forces in the region and because the Donets River which crosses the city creates a natural barrier to the Russian advance. Russia is the most active on this front, and it is clear that they are going to redouble their efforts here. Mariupol hangs on. Taking the city is expensive for Russia, according to all the destroyed equipment and corpses (drone footage, but warned) on Twitter and Telegram.

Mykolaiv/Kherson/Crimea/Southern Front: It has been confirmed that Ukraine has released Snihurivka and Novovorontsovka in the region.

The arrow at the top right is Novovorontsovka, at the bottom left is Snihurivka. Ukraine released both today.

With Snihurivka taken (the bottom arrow), that’s a lot of Russian forces cut off to the northeast, although no one (besides the Ukrainian and Russian armies) really knows what’s left up there. I’m torn between rooting for Russia to pull out, allowing Ukraine to roll up this territory with minimal casualties, and having Russian forces trapped up there easier choices for the defenders. Either way, this weird, underfunded, and always futile effort to reach out to Kryvyi Rih is officially over, just when I had finally learned to spell the name of this town without looking it up.

To re-emphasize (as I did in a previous update), the new York Times the report that Ukraine had a presence in Kherson was complete bullshit, a distortion of a Pentagon report that Ukraine was now challenging Kherson County, the administrative region. And it does so, as far as we know, by bombing Kherson airport, currently occupied by Russia. The mainstream media has done an excellent job of covering the refugee crisis and the humanitarian crisis, but an abysmal job of covering the military side. Don’t assume they know what they’re talking about just because they’re the New York Times or other such mainstream media.

If you didn’t catch Mark Sumner and I discussing the war this week, check it out:

Meanwhile, I said that Russia’s weakness would embolden violence in the Central Asian countries in which it has interfered. For example, Armenia holds disputed territory in Azerbaijan, held with the help of Russian “blue helmets”. So much for this peace.

X

Russia’s fall from grace will not only encourage an effort to retake many of these disputed territories, but could also spark further violence in some of Russia’s hinterland regions. Indeed, it might even be in China’s interest to quietly encourage some of them. Expect a lot of violence in the years to come now that the Russian bear myth has been shattered.

Other updates from Ukraine today:

Share.

Comments are closed.