Turkey has recently raised the bar on provocations against Greece, raising tension in the eastern Mediterranean at a time when the two supposed NATO allies are expected to show unity in the face of the Russian threat against Ukraine.
Greece launched a diplomatic protest on Thursday, or Stepsto Turkey over continued provocations by Turkish officials, including President Erdogan, who question the sovereignty of the Aegean islands.
Turkey to ‘intensify rhetoric against Greece’
Diplomatic and defense analyst Dr. Athanasios Drougos recounts Greek journalist that he expects Turkey to intensify its rhetoric against Greece in the weeks and months to come.
“Turkey wants to broaden the agenda of its claims against Greece. It aims to include the issue of the militarization of the islands within a broader set of claims, including the exclusive economic zone (EEZ), the status of islands such as Kastellorizo and the Greek right to extend territorial waters into the Aegean Sea.
Drougos says Ankara is preparing a set of demands on various issues it has had with Greece over the past 40 years with the aim of portraying Athens to the international community as a delinquent state that systematically violates international treaties.
“In the coming months, I expect Turkey to strengthen its provocative stance against Greece. His rhetoric will be more hostile and he will seek to present all demands to international forums, including perhaps the UN Security Council and NATO,” the Greek defense analyst said.
He notes that many defense analysts in Athens fear that at a time when NATO is preoccupied with Ukraine and Russia, Turkey is taking the opportunity to launch a limited military operation in the Aegean Sea.
Drougos does not share this view. He believes Turkish provocations against Greece will only escalate in terms of rhetoric with an international audience in mind. As he points out, “Turkey has been told by the United States and NATO not to push its rhetoric too far”.
International treaties and the Greek-Turkish dispute
On Tuesday, Turkey’s Erdogan warned Greece against attempts to arm the Aegean islands. “It is not possible for us to remain silent on military activities carried out in violation of the agreements on the islands with unarmed status,” Erdogan said.
Greece absorbed the islands of Limnos, Samothrace, Lesvos, Samos, Chios and Ikaria from the Ottoman Empire in the Balkan Wars of 1912-13. He formally gained sovereignty over them in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne.
Another treaty drafted in London in 1914 made Greek possession of the islands conditional on their demilitarization. Turkey says that since the Lausanne Treaty refers to the 1914 Treaty, it implies the same conditionality.
Turkey also claims that the demilitarization of the islands is also enshrined in the 1947 Paris Treaty when Italy ceded full sovereignty of the Dodecanese islands to Greece.
Greece rejects all Turkish demands. Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias speaking in Moscow on Friday clarified that, for example, the agreement on the demilitarization of the Dodecanese was not linked to Turkey, but to the concerns of the Soviet Union at the time.
“The Soviet Union benefited from demilitarization, Turkey is not a signatory to the treaty and therefore derives no rights from it,” Dendias said.
The agreement on the demilitarization of the Dodecanese was not linked to Turkey, but to the concerns of the Soviet Union at the time. The Soviet Union benefited from demilitarization, Turkey is not a signatory to the treaty and therefore derives no rights from it. pic.twitter.com/5a4tjzvtrT
—Nikos Dendias (@NikosDendias) February 19, 2022
Turkey poses a real threat to the Greek islands
Drougos claims that despite legal arguments and the interpretation of international law, Turkey poses a real threat to the Greek islands in the eastern Aegean and, under the United Nations Charter, Greece has the right to defend his territory.
“Given the experience that Greece has with Turkey on Cyprus and other incidents targeting Greek islets in the Aegean Sea, it decided to place military units in the islands. Brigade forces were deployed in the islands of Rhodes, Lesvos, Chios, Kos and Samos.
He adds, however, that there is no heavy military equipment deployed that could pose a real threat to Turkey.
The opposite is happening, he argues. Turkey has deployed a large force facing the Greek islands – the 4th Army based in Izmir – which has offensive capabilities and it often conducts exercises that include sea landing scenarios.
Drougos says that in the face of Turkish provocations, Greece is preparing its own diplomatic “counterattack”. He notes that in the recent diplomatic protest against Turkey, Athens includes a whole range of issues beyond the militarization of the islands.
Among them is Turkey’s 1995 threat to go to war with Greece – the so-called “casus belli” – if Athens exercises its legal right to extend its territorial waters up to 12 nautical miles, the illegal memorandum Turkish-Libyan on the maritime zones, and the Rhetoric of the “blue fatherland”.
The Foreign Ministry has also instructed Greek embassies to the European Union, NATO and members of the UN Security Council to inform them of Turkey’s escalating activities.
