Turkey is a “borderline candidate” to escape the red list in next week’s traffic light review, according to travel expert Tim White.
Addressed exclusively to I On his forecast for the next travel update, which is due Wednesday or Thursday, the data analyst said that alongside Egypt and Pakistan, Turkey has a good chance of moving to the orange list.
Transportation Secretary Grant Shapps made no mention of the holiday favorite during its latest tri-weekly traffic light review, in which destinations are organized into four categories of green, watchlist green, orange, or red depending on the severity of the Covid risk -19.
Currently, travelers entering the UK from Red Listed Turkey must go through 10 days of managed quarantine at a government hotel at a cost of £ 2,285 for an adult in a room, with an additional rate of £ 1 £ 430 for each additional adult.
Tim, who posts daily Covid-19 updates and analysis from his Twitter account, says that “widespread disbelief” of Turkey’s figures by the British government is why the country’s popular Mediterranean beaches have remained off-limits to British tourists all summer.
What are the rules of the traffic light system?
The traffic light system is decided on the basis of the following criteria:
- The percentage of a country’s population that has been vaccinated
- The infection rate
- The prevalence of worrisome variants
- The country’s access to reliable scientific data and genomic sequencing
There are now four categories of traffic lights, one more than when Transportation Secretary Grant Shapps first announced the system in May 2021.
GreenArrivals must pass a pre-departure test three days before returning to the UK as well as a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test no later than the second day of their return. Quarantine does not apply (unless the Covid-19 test comes back positive) and there is no requirement for further testing.
Green watchlist: same rules as the green list. However, the countries on this list “are at risk of going from green to orange”, potentially in the very short term.
amber: All travelers must pass a pre-departure test three days before return and a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test no later than the second day of their return. Unvaccinated travelers should also self-isolate for 10 days and have a second PCR test on day 8. An additional five-day optional test may be performed, with a negative result allowing unvaccinated travelers to “test” out of quarantine. The Day 8 PCR test should always be performed regardless of the result of the optional Day 5 PCR test.
Red: Arrivals from Red List countries must complete a 10 day stay in a managed quarantine hotel, pre-departure testing and mandatory PCR testing no later than day 2 and on or after day 8. The price of a quarantine hotel stay has increased for bookings made from 4 a.m. on August 12 – it now costs £ 2,285 for a single adult (there is an additional charge for more people in a group family). This is an increase from the previous cost of £ 1,750 per single adult.
He said: “The infection rates have started to drop rapidly and at first glance there is a decent chance that Turkey will be upgraded to amber. However, it will all depend on how many travelers from Turkey arrive in the UK with the infection. “
The seven-day average of new Covid cases in Turkey peaked on August 11 at 24,820. Since then, the numbers have declined, with the latest figures showing a seven-day average of just 19,898.
Meanwhile, the incidence of Covid-19 in Turkey over the past seven days per 100,000 people is almost half the rate seen in the UK. As of August 19, Turkey has reported 180 cases per 100,000 people over seven days, while the UK has reported 315.
Turkey, along with Dubai, was initially redlisted in May over fears that, as travel hubs, the two destinations could spread the emerging Delta variant.
Although the Delta variant now accounts for virtually all Covid-19 infections in the UK, the government has so far been cautious about opening up to Turkey due to the country’s excellent transport links to passengers in the UK. world, as well as fears that Turkey’s government may underreport the number of cases.
While Turkey may be a “borderline” case, the Maldives, the Dominican Republic and Oman are the red-list destinations most likely to turn orange during next week’s traffic light update, according to M White.